What are the risks of England unlocking in the Covid third wave?
Analysis: Boris Johnson is betting big by easing rules on 19 July despite new infections rising exponentially
Lifting the final Covid restrictions in England on 19 July is a gamble for the government. Even without further easing, cases are on course to surpass 50,000 a day by mid-July. Thereafter they could swiftly exceed the winter peak of 81,000 and hit 100,000 or more, the health secretary has said. What the next wave means for lives and the NHS is still deeply uncertain – but the science offers some clues.