Tensions are rising about pandemic modelling, but we ‘gloomsters’ are saving lives
Scientists are often blamed for leading to excessive curbs on society. But they are cautious for a very good reason
The past week has seen tensions rising about scientific modelling during the pandemic. Projections cited by UK and devolved governments as they tightened Covid restrictions have led to strained exchanges. But modelling is essential because it tell us:
• What are the range of possible outcomes based on what we know?
Society can’t just wait for things to happen. We can and do save lives by being prepared for a range of things, only some of which happen. As information increases, the model improves, and the range of outcomes narrows as scenarios are eliminated.